The “second” estimate of U.S. real gross domestic product (GDP) for the first quarter of 2019 was revised down by a 0.1 percentage point to 3.1 percent at an annualized rate compared to the “advance” estimate. The overall picture of economic growth remained the same. The real GDP growth relied largely on temporary factors such as higher private business inventories and reduced … [Read more...] about Business Indicators
Stephen M. Miller
Business IndicatorsJune 2019
The “advance” estimate of U.S. real gross domestic product (GDP) for the first quarter of 2019 increased unexpectedly by 3.2 percent at an annualized rate. Although the growth rate marked its fastest first quarter increase since 2015, the overall real GDP growth included some temporary factors – reduced imports and higher private business inventories. Thus, the unexpected gain … [Read more...] about Business Indicators
Business IndicatorsJanuary 2019
The “second” estimate of U.S. real gross domestic product (GDP) for the third quarter of 2018 increased at an annual rate of 3.5 percent. Based on more complete data compared to last month, business investment, including inventory investment, was revised upward, which was offset by smaller estimates of consumer and state and local government spending growth. The overall picture … [Read more...] about Business Indicators
Business Indicators: December 2018
The “first” estimate of U.S. real gross domestic product (GDP) for the third quarter of 2018 increased at an annual rate of 3.5 percent, a 0.7 percentage point drop from the “final” estimate of the second quarter, yet a faster-than-expected growth rate for the third quarter. Overall, positive contributions from personal consumption spending, private inventory investment, … [Read more...] about Business Indicators: December 2018
Business Indicators: November 2018
The “third” estimate of U.S. real gross domestic product (GDP) for the second quarter of 2018 increased at an annual rate of 4.2 percent, which remained unchanged from the “second” estimate. The overall picture of GDP growth did not change based on more complete data except that lower-than-expected private inventory investment was offset by small upward movements from most … [Read more...] about Business Indicators: November 2018
Business Indicators: October 2018
The “second” estimate of U.S. real gross domestic product (GDP) for the second quarter of 2018 rose at an annual rate of 4.2 percent, up by 0.1 percentage point from the prior estimate. The upward revision reflected larger-than-expected business investment, including inventory investment, which was partly offset by smaller-than-expected consumer spending. Real GDP posted the … [Read more...] about Business Indicators: October 2018
Business Indicators: September 2018
The “advance” estimate for U.S. real gross domestic product (GDP) for the second quarter of 2018 expanded by a strong 4.1 percent annualized rate, the fastest pace in almost four years. Consumer spending, which accounts for two-thirds of real GDP, also grew strongly, which probably reflected somewhat the tax cut. U.S. nonfarm employment added a lower-than-expected 157,000 jobs … [Read more...] about Business Indicators: September 2018
Business Indicators: August 2018
The “third” estimate for U.S. real gross domestic product (GDP) for the first quarter of 2018 expanded at a 2.0 percent annualized rate, revised down from the second estimate of 2.2 percent. The downward revisions mainly reflected smaller-than-expected private inventory investment and personal consumption expenditure. U.S. nonfarm employment continued its surprising gain by … [Read more...] about Business Indicators: August 2018
Business Indicators: July 2018
The “second” estimate for U.S. real gross domestic product (GDP) for the first quarter of 2018 showed growth at an annual rate of 2.2 percent, down by 0.1 percentage point from the previous estimate of 2.3 percent. The downward revisions reflected smaller private inventory investment, residential fixed investment, and net exports, which were partly offset by a larger … [Read more...] about Business Indicators: July 2018
Business Indicators: June 2018
The “advance” estimate for U.S. real gross domestic product (GDP) for the first quarter of 2018 rose at an annual rate of 2.3 percent, a slower pace than the previous three consecutive quarters of about 3 percent. The first quarter real GDP growth, however, exceeded the first-quarter growth in recent years. The increase in real GDP largely reflected a moderate growth in … [Read more...] about Business Indicators: June 2018
Business Indicators: May 2018
The “third” estimate for U.S. real gross domestic product (GDP) for the fourth quarter of 2017 increased at an annual rate of 2.9 percent, up by 0.4 percentage point from the previous estimate. U.S. nonfarm employment added a disappointing 103,000 jobs in March after the large increase of 326,000 jobs in the last month. The unemployment rate remained at 4.1 percent for the … [Read more...] about Business Indicators: May 2018
Business Indicators: March 2018
The “advance” estimate for U.S. real gross domestic product (GDP) for the fourth quarter of 2017 increased at an annual rate of 2.6 percent after two consecutive quarters of above 3 percent growth. Average hourly earnings growth accelerated to 2.9 percent year-over year, its largest gain since the Great Recession thanks to a tightening labor market. Retail sales posted strong … [Read more...] about Business Indicators: March 2018
September 2017: Business Indicators
The “advance” estimate for U.S. real gross domestic product (GDP) for the second quarter of 2017 grew at a 2.6 percent annualized rate. Real GDP for the first quarter was revised downward to a 1.2 percent pace. Residential investment exhibited the largest decrease among the real GDP components for the second quarter, while consumer spending and business investment rebounded … [Read more...] about September 2017: Business Indicators
August 2017: Business Indicators
The “third” estimate for U.S. real gross domestic product (GDP) for the first quarter of 2017 implied a 1.4 percent annualized rate of growth, 0.2 percentage point higher than the “second” estimate of 1.2 percent. U.S. nonfarm employment rebounded by adding an impressive 222,000 jobs in June. Moreover, the previous two months of job gains were revised upward. The unemployment … [Read more...] about August 2017: Business Indicators
July 2017: Business Indicators
The “second” estimate for U.S. real gross domestic product (GDP) for the first quarter of 2017 grew at a 1.2 percent annualized rate, a half percentage point higher than the “first” estimate. The upward revision reflects larger gains in nonresidential fixed investment and personal consumption expenditure and smaller losses in state and local government spending. U.S. nonfarm … [Read more...] about July 2017: Business Indicators
June 2017: Business Indicators
The “advance” estimate for U.S. real gross domestic product (GDP) for the first quarter of 2017 grew at a weaker-than-expected 0.7 percent annualized rate. The biggest positive contribution came from private domestic investment, while consumer spending posted the slowest growth since the end of the Great Recession based on incomplete data. Weak consumer spending, in spite of … [Read more...] about June 2017: Business Indicators
May 2017: Business Indicators
The “third” estimate for U.S. real gross domestic product (GDP) for the fourth quarter of 2017 grew at a 2.1 percent annualized rate, up by 0.2 percentage point from the “second” estimate. According to more complete source data, consumer spending boosted real GDP more than expected. U.S. nonfarm employment added a less-than-expected 98,000 jobs in March. The unemployment rate, … [Read more...] about May 2017: Business Indicators
April 2017: Business Indicators
The “second” estimate for U.S. real gross domestic product (GDP) for the fourth quarter of 2017 grew at a 1.9 percent annualized rate, remaining unchanged from the “advance” estimate. According to more complete source data, consumer spending increased more strongly than previously thought, but increases in state and local government spending and nonresidential fixed investment … [Read more...] about April 2017: Business Indicators
March 2017: Business Indicators
The “advanced” estimate for U.S. real gross domestic product (GDP) for the fourth quarter of 2017 increased at a 1.9 percent annualized rate. Although the real GDP growth rate decelerated compared to last quarter’s 3.5 percent increase, the underlying categories showed more strength. Consumer spending stayed robust and business investment finally moved out of a negative or … [Read more...] about March 2017: Business Indicators
February 2017: Business Indicators
U.S. real gross domestic product (GDP) for the third quarter of 2016 increased at a 3.5 percent annualized rate. The surprising upswing of real GDP in the third quarter reflects a surge in agricultural (soybean) exports and a rebound in business inventories. The consumer price index also showed the largest jump in two years at 1.7 percent. November housing starts fell … [Read more...] about February 2017: Business Indicators