Rep. Dean Heller’s recent announcement in a Reno newspaper that he will strongly consider running for governor sometime in his political career, got many political watchers thinking and talking about 2010.
That is the next time the gubernatorial seat will appear on a ballot. Normally, there would be little question that the incumbent, Gov. Jim Gibbons, would be a lock for re-election. However, his rocky start and plummeting poll numbers – nearly 30 percent earlier this month – have certainly fueled speculation that a strong opponent will emerge.
Although it’s a full three years until the next election and anything can happen in that time, if Gov. Gibbons’ numbers don’t bounce back, he could face a significant challenge within his own party. Someone like Heller or current Lt. Gov. Brian Krolicki might find it too tempting. They also might feel that allowing Gibbons to run unopposed would practically give the seat away to the Democrats.
Sen. Bob Beers may want to try his hand again now that he knows the ropes. He’s been quiet this legislative session, a sign that he’s trying not to get tied to anything that could hinder his chances to run.
As the Democrats found out in 2006, though, primaries are dangerous and candidates are not only in jeopardy of giving the other side issues, but depleting their bank accounts for the general election.
The Democrats certainly have the horses to field a good candidate for governor. On the top of the list has to be current Attorney General Catherine Cortez Masto. She’s smart, politically savvy and by then, will have established a solid reputation. Several attorney generals have made the jump to governor, including Richard Bryan and Robert List.
Secretary of State Ross Miller could also be a strong contender. While some might say his age and relative inexperience might be a detriment to his possible campaign, he’s smart and a hard worker. He also has the pedigree, as the son of former Nevada Gov. Bob Miller.
Speaker Barbara Buckley could make a strong push to be the first female elected governor of the state. However, a lot depends upon how her next two sessions as speaker go. As former Speaker Richard Perkins found out, when you express an interest in wanting to run for governor, you put a target on your back for your political enemies.
Another possible development would be the entrance of someone completely outside the political process, like a wealthy business person who could fund his or her own race. One name that has been mentioned for years is former Harrahs CEO Phil Satre. Although close friends say he won’t do it, he’s got money and has quietly expressed an interest in this position in the past.
Kenny Guinn had never been elected to any office when he ran for governor in 1998, so there is some precedent for this type of move. In addition, candidates like this don’t have voting records and are much harder to attack on the issues.
While no one is counting Gov. Gibbons out just yet, things move very quickly in politics, and candidates cannot be blamed for positioning themselves for what looks to be a very interesting race in 2010.