Some call it the Kenny Guinn effect. Others attribute it to the tremendous growth in Nevada and the wealth of opportunities that success represents. Whatever the cause, elected officials are making decisions about their political futures earlier than ever before. Prior to Governor Guinn making public his intention to run a year and a half before the 1998 gubernatorial race, politicians hardly ever announced their plans more than a year out. Today, more than a full year from the 2002 general election, nearly every federal and statewide office has an announced candidate, and almost all the legislative positions with no current incumbent have known candidates. Here’s how a few of the bigger races are stacking up for Campaign 2002:
Governor
At this early stage it looks as though Guinn will have no real opposition for his re-election bid to a second and final term (like the president, the Nevada governor is limited to two terms). The only monkey wrench in his plans could be a bid from the wildly popular mayor of Las Vegas, Oscar Goodman. For the past year, Goodman has told anyone who will listen that he is the happiest mayor in the world and just wants to stay that way. But he hasn’t said no to the race, yet. Most insiders and those who know Goodman well are sure the mayor will stay put. Goodman would certainly give Guinn fits. The mayor’s shoot-from-the-hip style is very popular, and plays well in Southern Nevada. However, Guinn’s advisors are counting that the rest of the state will not be particularly thrilled to have a former mob lawyer and flashy Las Vegas mayor representing them in the governor’s office. Goodman would have to beat Guinn by 15 or 20 points in Clark County and at least break even in a few other parts of the state to win the race. With the negative campaign Guinn’s forces are sure to mount, that might be a tall order.
The only other name being talked about for the governor’s race is Clark County Commissioner Erin Kenny. She’s a feisty campaigner and a prolific fundraiser, but it would be an uphill climb. With her re-election to a third term on the commission all but assured, she’s not likely to take the leap, but don’t count her out.
Congressional Races:
Incumbent Rep. Shelley Berkley emerged from reapportionment with an even stronger district. With a war chest nearing $1 million, she is a huge frontrunner to win a third term. The only name being mentioned as a possible challenger is Las Vegas City Councilwoman Lynette Boggs-McDonald. Coming off a successful bid to retain her seat, Boggs-McDonald would be an extremely credible contender.
There are no rumors about possible candidates to challenge Rep. Jim Gibbons. His northern congressional seat is very Republican, and he’s managed to stay away from any controversy that would give an opponent the edge.
The 2000 census allocated Nevada another congressional seat based on the increase in population. In this newly created district, Democrat Clark County Commissioner Dario Herrera will square off against Republican State Senator Jon Porter. Herrera has the early edge, and has raised the most money. Porter has been quiet in the early going, but he knows the ebb and flow of a congressional contest, having lost to Berkley two years ago. Party registration in the district is near even, but the Republicans usually enjoy a greater turnout edge, which would favor Porter. On any handicapper’s scorecard, this one is going to be close.