Feature Stories - August 2006

Election Outlook 2006

Who’s Hot and Who's Not?

by Kami Dempsey

Perhaps you’ve noticed a less-than-subtle increase in mail these past few weeks. Or you’ve noticed that you can’t watch any show on television that’s not interrupted by political advertisements.

Nevada is in the midst of one of the most competitive political primary cycles in recent memory – perhaps in its history. Nearly every statewide office is competitive (some with multiple candidates), candidates for local office are everywhere, and a couple of key legislative districts will be decided on primary election day, August 15th.

The primary election was moved up this year from September to August, to give candidates who win the primary more time to be competitive in the general election in November. This means that July has become crunch time for those trying to establish name identification and those trying to smash incumbents. Let’s look at the field for the 2006 statewide ballot:

Governor’s Race, Democratic Side

This has been a spirited campaign between Henderson Mayor Jim Gibson and State Senate Minority Leader Dina Titus. The race really got started last year, when potential contender Assembly Speaker Richard Perkins dropped out.

Titus led in most early polls, due to her many years in office and to an aggressive Democratic agenda that has included open-space preservation and controlled-growth legislation. She has done an extremely effective job of energizing the Democratic base. The UNLV political science professor knows how to campaign, but has had trouble raising large amounts from the establishment, who fear she cannot beat the potential Republican favorite, Congressman Jim Gibbons.

Mayor Gibson, whose campaign didn’t get off to a flying start, has picked up his pace with an aggressive television identification campaign throughout the state. The ads that have aired since Memorial Day highlight his education plan (a priority among most Nevadans in recent polls) and his record on environmental issues. He has also done an effective job of challenging Titus’ record in hard-hitting TV ads, talking about her votes for a pension increase and for the largest tax increase in Nevada history (during the 2003 legislative session).

While Northern Nevada is expected to play less of a role in the primary because there are significantly fewer Democratic votes in play, both candidates have aggressive organizations in Washoe County and in rural areas. Gibson has been hammering Titus for comments she made about Washoe County getting an unfair amount of state taxes compared to the share it contributes. The debate took place during the “fair share” controversy at the 1991 session, and Titus is paying for her unfortunate remarks. In turn, she has attacked Gibson for attending the inauguration of President George W. Bush and for being against a woman’s right to choose (Gibson has said he supports abortion only in cases of rape, incest or to save the life of the mother).

Polls showed that Gibson’s television campaign was working; however, Titus has now responded with a significant media presence in both Northern and Southern Nevada. She is not only responding to Gibson’s claims, but also is promoting her gubernatorial priorities if elected. This race will most likely go down to the wire and will hinge on which Democrats show up at the polls – liberal party regulars or the Democrats who traditionally sway more conservative.

Governor’s Race, Republican Side

Although prohibitive favorite Jim Gibbons is facing several qualified candidates, no one has mounted any serious challenge against him in the early going. Gibbons, a five-term congressman, came into the race with a strong fundraising advantage, as well as help from several of the state’s top political operatives, including Sig Rogich, the spinmeister who anointed and successfully elected current Governor Kenny Guinn.

It looked for a while as though Lt. Gov. Lorraine Hunt might mount a serious challenge. She sent out a press release claiming she was committing $800,000 of her own money to the campaign. Although at press time we have not seen any TV spots, she is rumored to be starting her own positive commercials in Northern Nevada soon. If her media buy is significant enough and increases over the coming weeks, it could motivate Gibbons to spend some of his own money in response, in order to maintain his double-digit lead in the polls.

State Senator Bob Beers has been aggressive against the front-runner, but lacks the financial backing to make a serious challenge. He has, however, produced a series of negative television spots and has received free press by showcasing them on his Web site. Beers hoped to ride his popular TASC Initiative (Tax and Spending Control) into office. But while the initiative is immensely popular among Nevadans (it would impose spending limits on local governments), his campaign hasn’t been able to capitalize on that success for fundraising.

Gibbons’ campaign handlers have also done an excellent job of shielding the congressman from the media and the public. He has effectively used his status as a working representative to stay away from debates and several joint public appearances, thereby limiting his chance for gaffes or anything that could give his opponents an edge. To date, he has made several controversial comments that were picked up by the press, and most likely will be used against him in the campaign.

Lieutenant Governor, Democratic Side

At the beginning of the campaign, the prohibitive favorite for this seat was uber-lawyer John Moran Jr., who has a very successful practice in Las Vegas. However, Moran dropped out for personal reasons before filing, and the Democrats were left scrambling for someone to fill his place on the ballot. After several possible candidates took their names out of contention, businessman Bob Unger finally filed and is the likely favorite for the Democrats.

There were some filing fireworks when former casino mogul and maverick Bob Stupak paid his $200 to get his name on the ballot. He even claimed he would put up $1 million of his own money to fund his campaign. So far, however, there has been no evidence that Stupak is serious about this election, and it is a safe bet that Unger will be the Democratic nominee.

Lieutenant Governor, Republican Side

This race was supposed to be a coronation for current Treasurer Brian Krolicki, who was expected to use this seat as a steppingstone for a possible gubernatorial bid, or perhaps a federal post. But newcomer Barbara Lee Wollen, a Las Vegas businesswoman, has sunk nearly half a million dollars into ads touting herself as a “conservative Republican” who will apparently use the lieutenant governor’s office to stop illegal immigration. Seizing on a hot-button issue is nothing new in politics. But Wollen’s television campaign talks of little else, for a job where she will be unable to do much, if anything, to affect the state’s immigration policies.

Krolicki’s name recognition is high, due to his public service announcements touting the state’s Millennium Scholarship Fund and the successful national launch of the newly designed Nevada quarter. He’ll certainly buy media, but will count on his positive name recognition to carry him through so he doesn’t have to spend much of his nearly $1 million war chest.

Incidentally, there was also some flurry in this race as filing closed, when former Las Vegas City Councilwoman Janet Moncrief (the reported girlfriend of Bob Stupak), filed for the office. Moncrief was recalled while on the Council and is not likely to have any significant impact on the race.

Attorney General, No Primary Contests

Catherine Cortez Masto will be the Democratic nominee and the favorite to win the race outright in November. She got an unlikely boost when current AG George Chanos lost his desire for politics and withdrew from the race before filing opened. The Republicans, after a long search that included possible contenders Senator Mark Amodei and University Regent Brett Whipple, decided upon former Las Vegas District Court Judge Don Chairez, who ran unsuccessfully for Congress against Rep. Shelley Berkley. Chairez is currently supporting the ballot question to make it harder for local governments to exercise their power of eminent domain, but it is unlikely that issue will give him the necessary boost to beat Masto. She has the establishment and the fundraising advantage firmly in her corner.

Secretary of State, Democratic Side

Although there is a primary, polls show Clark County Deputy District Attorney Ross Miller should easily beat Roderick Boyd, who has done little, if any, campaigning. Miller has put out several thoughtful plans detailing what he would do in the office and hopes to use his prosecutorial experience (always a strong polling point among voters) to gain a successful outcome in November.

Secretary of State, Republican Side

This will be an entertaining contest to watch, as party loyalist and local businessman Brian Scroggins faces Danny Tarkanian, son of the famous UNLV basketball coach Jerry Tarkanian. Scroggins has campaigned before, and has close ties to many party regulars. However, Tarkanian has run an aggressive early campaign, also utilizing the issue of the day, immigration. It is difficult to fundraise for this race, so it’s likely both candidates will use some of their own resources to cross the finish line.

There was some early controversy when Scroggins, then a member of the Nevada State Contractor’s Board, starting soliciting contractors for donations. He had a favorable ruling from the Ethics Commission that he could do so, but was slammed in the press for “extorting” those he regulated.

The winner gets quite a prize – the opportunity to face Miller, son of the very popular two-term governor Bob Miller – who will have to spend very little of his six-figure campaign account to get through the primary.

State Treasurer, Democratic Side

Reno attorney Kate Marshall, after dropping out of the secretary of state’s race to clear the way for Miller, landed in this seat and has been an aggressive campaigner and fundraiser. She was set to take on the Republican with not much trouble in the primary, but now faces a bit of a challenge from Geoffery VanderPal. He is on television and has blanketed Southern Nevada with signs (albeit on a few of them he declared himself to be running for “State Treasure” instead of “Treasurer”).

Marshall has every top-name Democrat on her inner-circle and should be the nominee, but the primary will force her to spend valuable dollars that she will need in the general.

State Treasurer, Republican Side

This race recently took an unfortunate turn. Originally, this contest featured impeached State Controller Kathy Augustine, who decided to seek another constitutional office by running for state treasurer. Her name will still appear on the ballot, but she passed away on July 11th. The two contenders are now Mark DeStefano and Joseph Pitts. DeStefano (who ran for University Regent but was kicked off the ballot after a judge ruled he did not live in the district from which he was running) has said he will put in his own money into the campaign. However, he had a bankruptcy, and that’s sure to come up as a campaign issue as he vies to be the head of Nevada’s finances. Joseph Pitts, a retired fireman, has already attacked DeStefano by filing an affidavit challenging DeStefano’s candidacy, claiming he did not show proof of residency at the time of candidate filing. With just weeks left before early voting begins, both candidates will have to hit the ground running to get their messages out to the voters.

Congressional District 1

Only one federal race features a serious primary this year – Congressional District 1, a position currently held by Jim Gibbons, who is running for governor. This district is strongly Republican, and it will likely elect the GOP candidate, although Democrat Jill Derby could be a spoiler if national politics continue to spell disaster for Republicans.

In the hotly-contested Republican primary, Secretary of State Dean Heller takes on Assemblywomen Dawn Gibbons and Sharron Angle. Heller has the backing and support of party stalwarts, but Gibbons has enjoyed favorable name recognition due to her husband Jim’s gubernatorial bid.

Most polls show Gibbons as a slight favorite, but the numbers are tightening. Angle was pushing the Proposition 13 ballot question, but couldn’t get the necessary signatures to get it on this year’s ballot. She is getting tremendous support from the Washington D.C. group “Club for Growth,” which is spending money on a third-party campaign to attack Heller and Gibbons (Angle has raised far less than both front-running candidates). Heller has in his corner Mike Slanker and November, Inc., the consultants that successfully guided John Ensign and Jon Porter to Congress.

The upcoming primary election will be vital to establishing Nevada’s future leadership. This election will serve as proof that the days of anointing political candidates for office may be numbered. There are several key races whose outcome will greatly impact the general election in November. It is crucial that every resident take the time to vote early or go to a polling location on Tuesday, August 15th. Your vote is your voice, and you will make a difference.