Inside Politics - June 2002

Grassroots and Icebergs

The Nature of Political Campaigns

by Michael Sullivan

I've always been fascinated by icebergs. The shear enormity of these monoliths is impressive, but what has always interested me is the fact that 75 percent of their mass hides from our view underwater. Good political campaigns are a lot like icebergs. While the top is extremely visible, the largest part isn’t always easy to see. Most people only see the media side of a campaign - the TV and radio commercials, the mailer pieces or the billboards and road signage. These are certainly important and take up much of a campaign’s budget, but they are created and produced by only a handful of people. Most of the time, they aren’t even the focus of a campaign’s day-to-day operation.

The largest, "underwater" part of the political campaign iceberg is the grassroots effort. On federal races, which may include hundreds of bodies - from door-to-door canvassers, to phone bankers, to headquarters staff - this army makes up the heart and soul of a good campaign. Some of the bodies are paid staffers, but most are volunteers, doing their job out of a love for the candidate or because they want to defeat the opponents. Every day, they work on getting votes the old fashioned way - by earning them.

It’s been proven many times, in this state and in others, that the candidate with the best advertising and biggest budget doesn’t always win. However, the candidate with the best grassroots effort hardly ever loses - especially in a primary. In 1994, then Democratic Assemblywoman Myrna Williams beat out former Clark County Commissioner Thalia Dondero. How did she do it? She had a stellar door-walking effort and attended dozens of neighborhood meetings, while her opponent had no visible presence in the district. Despite being outspent $400,000 to $60,000, Williams pulled off a stunning upset.

Looking at Campaign 2002, grassroots efforts will be on display in several races. Many clear favorites have had a chance to raise significant amounts of money. The only way their top challengers will have a chance is by putting together strong volunteer-based campaigns and knocking on a lot of doors. The Attorney General’s race is such a contest. Brian Sandoval sopped up most of the early money and many of the significant endorsements, including all of the law enforcement organizations. The only chance top contender John Hunt has is to run a strong and aggressive campaign and hope to catch Sandoval off guard, which will not be easy.

The rest of the top races in Campaign 2002 will also be decided by grassroots efforts. While many of the favorites have more money, their opponents could pull off upsets by developing a superior voter outreach effort.

Speaking of upsets, several late filings could make for some interesting races this election season. Clark County Commissioner Erin Kenny pulled a last-minute switch and decided to run against incumbent Lieutenant Governor Lorraine Hunt. Kenny will have an enormous fundraising advantage because she raised close to $1 million for her County Commission race, but Hunt is well liked and could have a significant advantage in the North. Former Senator Mark James also jumped into Kenny’s Commission seat, creating a four-way primary against Esther Quisenberry, Tim Cory and Devin Smith. James has a great record and will get money, but primary voters tend to be very conservative, and that could help the other candidates.

Michael Sullivan
Michael Sullivan is president of Knight Consulting, a Southern Nevada government affairs firm.