Inside Politics - January 2004

The 2004 Political Season

Conflict and Turmoil Predicted

by Michael Sullivan

To say that the 2004 political season in Nevada is going to be quite interesting might be like saying Mount Everest is a pretty big hill.

Next year’s election cycle is so full of ups and downs, twists and turns, that it’s hard to predict anything with a reasonable degree of accuracy. The tortuous conclusion of the 2003 Legislative session created many hostilities and pitted major Nevada industries against each other.

Now add to that the fallout from an amazing implosion by one Democratic assemblyman and the zealous campaigns by anti-tax petition seekers and you have a tempest that isn’t likely to die down anytime soon.

The assemblyman in question is Wendell Williams, who represents Assembly District 6 on the east side of Las Vegas. It’s doubtful anyone by now hasn’t heard of Williams’ misdeeds, which led to his firing from the city of Las Vegas (filling out false time cards, billing the city for work he didn’t actually do, using his city cell phone for personal calls, etc.).

As he fell from grace, however, he took a lot of his colleagues with him. It’s doubtful that without Williams’ very public destruction, the press would never have thought to look at how other public officials serving in the legislature get paid.

Now two other Democratic assembly members, Kathy McClain and Kelvin Atkinson, have been fired from their jobs at Clark County for receiving sick pay while they were actually working at the Legislature. The speaker of the Assembly, Richard Perkins, D-Henderson, has also come under scrutiny by the media for continuing to receive pay from his employer, the Henderson Police Department, while serving in Carson City.

How these issues will play out in the ’04 election cycle is anyone’s guess. Although one Republican group is trying to qualify an initiative that would prevent public employees from serving at the Legislature, polls have shown little support for such a measure. It is likely, though, these issues will be widespread as Republicans attempt to close their two-seat deficit in the Assembly and widen their four-seat advantage in the Senate.

It was expected that after a tumultuous 2003 session, which ended in two special sessions and a widely debated tax increase, Republicans would be the ones with the most to worry about. GOP members in the lower house were firmly opposed to several parts of the tax package, especially a gross-receipts component that was strongly supported by gaming and other large, politically powerful industries.

These businesses had threatened not to support the 15 Republican Assembly members who consistently voted against the measure (and created the number of votes necessary to block the legislation with the state’s two-thirds majority requirement). However, there have already been cracks in the coalition, and some of these Republicans are likely to get support and money.

The Democrats should get back at least two seats that were won in the Republican landslide of 2002. But the McClain and Atkinson seats are obviously vulnerable, and any public employee facing re-election will have a challenging time against a worthwhile opponent.

What might end up carrying the day for the Democrats is gaming’s fear of an Assembly led by current Minority Leader Lynn Hettrick, R-Minden. He held his caucus together and thwarted efforts to pass the gross receipts tax (with help from the two-thirds majority requirement). The thought of a session with him and his cohorts in charge is likely to shake a few more dollars free and provide Speaker Perkins with all the volunteers he needs to stay in the majority.

Michael Sullivan
Michael Sullivan is president of Knight Consulting, a Southern Nevada government affairs firm.